Railways, roadways, airways, waterways, and pipelines have been the primary traditional transportation modes for centuries! These modes have continued to evolve rapidly as technology advances and societal needs change. Advances including electric vehicles (EVs), autonomous vehicles, sustainability solutions, hyperloop technology, drones, and advances in urban planning are expected to make transportation safer, more efficient, and environmentally sound. Here are my predictions for how these trends and technologies will impact our transportation infrastructure moving forward.
Six Technologies and Trends to Watch
1. Electric vehicles will outnumber gas-powered vehicles
Electric vehicles (EVs) are steadily growing, driven by advancements in battery technology, improved charging infrastructure, and government incentives. Currently, electric cars make up only a small portion of the total cars on the road. In 2022, EV sales increased 65% compared to 2021. Approximately 5.7% of US car sales were fully electric car sales in 2022; that is up from 3.2% in 2021, 1.7% in 2020, and 1.4% in 2019. According to a new Bloomberg New Energy Finance report, 57% of vehicles sold and over 30% of all cars will be electric by 2040.
In 50 years or less, electric vehicles will outnumber gas-powered vehicles (GPV). Eventually, GPV could be outlawed from city limits due to global warming. Urban daily travel needs, including delivery, will be met with cheap, battery-powered vehicles like E-bikes, Segway-style walkers, scooters, cargo bikes, or one or two-person urban pod cars, with long-distance travel reserved for specialized vehicles. Fossil fuel-powered vehicles could eventually be minimized and in some cases not allowed in inner-city travel. Furthermore, urban air mobility is gaining traction, with companies developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts to offer faster travel in congested cities.
2. Autonomous vehicles will improve safety and efficiency
This technology has been and will continue to be developed and evaluated by various companies throughout the world. Autonomous vehicles have the potential to revolutionize transportation by improving safety, reducing congestion, and increasing efficiency. Real-time vehicle data and data analytics including Machine Learning (ML) and predictive analysis will present many opportunities for developing design and operational alternatives for safer designs, and balancing safety and mobility in a roadway system. Likewise, the integration of transportation systems with data and technology (Smart Cities approach) will enable real-time monitoring, optimization of traffic flow, decrease needs for even more infrastructure, and make for better transportation planning.
3. Sustainability will be key
Finding solutions that enhance sustainability will be a major objective to building and maintaining efficient transportation modes in the future. Rail transportation (high-speed, commercial, and light rail) is expected to rise since it is the most environmentally-friendly way to deliver goods and people from one place to another. Compared to trucks and ships, trains emit 80% fewer carbon emissions. Travel by heavy and light rail within cities or across long distances releases the least amount of greenhouse gasses into the air out of all forms of transportation studied by the International Energy Agency. Government funding such as Federal Capital Investment Grants will be on the rise to support such sustainable solutions for inner city and long-distance travel.
4. Hyperloop technology is almost here
This technology involving high-speed pods traveling in low-pressure tubes could revolutionize long-distance travel, reducing travel times significantly. Hyperloop is one of the most trending technologies in the field of transportation. A hyperloop pod can travel at a speed of 700 mph. Projects are developing at various locations across the globe, and we expect to see actual deployments between major cities across the United states in the next 20 years.
5. Drones will transport goods
Drones for delivery services will be the future mode of transporting goods for short distance delivery. Drones offer efficient and environmentally-friendly options in urban areas. By avoiding challenges such as traffic bottlenecks and parking restrictions, drone delivery can become the preferred choice for an on-point delivery for time-sensitive goods, emergency aid, medical supplies, and more.
6. Urban planning will rely less on cars
Cities will continue to focus on creating more walkable and bike-friendly neighborhoods, reducing the reliance on private vehicles, and promoting active transportation. Significant investments are expected in equity and social justice, specifically in projects focusing on public transportation and connecting underserved communities with employment centers. Cities will continue investing in bicycle infrastructure, such as dedicated bike lanes and bike-sharing programs, to promote cycling as a sustainable and efficient mode of transportation. Electric scooters and E-bikes could become among the most attractive options as a last-mile transportation solution in urban areas. They are easy to use, environmentally-friendly, and provide a convenient alternative to short car trips. Mobility as a Service (MaaS) platforms also provide integrated and seamless transportation options, allowing users to plan and pay for different modes of transportation through a single app or platform. Such advancements will result in a significant reduction in car ownership in the next 30 years.
The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Technology also is a fast-growing alternative for electric vehicles to discharge power back into the electrical grid, thus contributing to grid stability and enabling the use of EVs as a distributed energy resource. Besides electricity, other promising trends include alternative fuels like hydrogen and biofuels, which have the potential to reduce emissions and dependence on fossil fuels in transportation. This concept is evolving quickly!
Key Takeaways
These observations are by no means all-inclusive of what we expect to see trending in the future. A lot of innovative transportation solutions will continue to evolve in the next 20-30 years. However, we must recognize that we will also face challenges as we work to incorporate new technologies. These could include a labor force shortage, as well as a lack of the necessary education at colleges and universities for civil and transportation planners and engineers. As our transportation systems become heavily driven by technology, engineers and planners should receive education in data science and big data analytics, operations research, human factors, artificial intelligence, predictive analysis, and 3-D modeling. If they do not have the necessary education in college or university, we could be faced with a shortage of these skills. An equally important challenge would be the development of new policies and federal regulations that may slow or accelerate deployments of innovative technologies.
However, if we are proactive in addressing the challenges, we can improve the way that infrastructure and services are planned to reap the benefits these new technologies can provide for our clients and communities.
