Now that I am working from home, I’ve noticed how many delivery trucks pass by the house on an average day, ranging from Amazon, UPS, Postal Service etc.…all dropping off packages during the holiday season. Even during the non-holiday season, there are still several trucks per day. This got me thinking—what will the future of merchandise delivery look like with the invention and implementation of new technologies?
As e-commerce increases, retailers are becoming more flexible by decentralizing their distribution/fulfillment networks to bring inventory closer to consumers. Last-mile fulfillment centers represented 73% of the industrial real estate market in 2017, which is a 15% increase over previous years. Therefore, the number of intra-regional and last-mile truck trips has increased, while the average haul length has declined. In addition, online orders typically result in 30% returns, and delivery windows continue to compress, adding to the increased number of trips. Both motor carriers and equipment manufacturers are experimenting with a variety of new technologies to address the challenges created by urban package deliveries, including drones, delivery robots, underground pipes/mail systems, smart cargo compartments and even autonomous delivery vans.
What changes will we see?
In the near term, the US Postal Service (USPS) has an opportunity to leverage advanced algorithms such as dynamic routing to improve the efficiency of existing business models and develop new models. USPS may also consider drones for select purposes in the future, such as delivery to traditionally high-cost remote locations. Given that robots are likely to have niche applications in smaller communities in the early stages of deployment, they may not present a large opportunity for the USPS in the near term. As the cost of driverless vehicles becomes more competitive with traditional vehicles over time, the USPS may have an opportunity to consider incorporating driverless vehicles within its fleet, with the potential of saving labor and other costs.
In the longer term, there is potential for new technologies to improve the vast underutilization of private transport, which may lead to an entirely new transportation infrastructure and new commercial delivery models. Crowdsourcing delivery companies could leverage private driverless vehicles, or companies could deploy their own optimized driverless fleets for delivery. There may eventually come a time when drones, robots, driverless vehicles, and other technologies make it such that humans no longer conduct product delivery. In this scenario, delivery providers would need to rethink their business models and shift to offering services such as delivery orchestration and more.
In the distant future, automated systems such as the Physical Internet may develop and deploy an open global logistics system that would continuously route and monitor products, leveraging the Internet of Things.
How do these changes impact infrastructure?
This increase in ecommerce—and resulting new technology and delivery methods—has led to significant infrastructure changes. Less parking is now needed due to ecommerce increasing. A report from Eric Scharnhorst at the Research Institute for Housing America clearly shows that American cities have been built for cars more than people. He states, “After decades of requiring parking for new construction, car storage has become the primary land use in many city areas.” However, often parking needs are not fully understood—and they can shift significantly.
We’ve written before about how the pandemic has changed the way we’ve conceptualized roadway and public space usage. Going further, these changes are inevitable no matter what we face. As transportation engineers, it is our responsibility to proactively incorporate new technologies and methodologies as our world shifts.
We’ve experienced this through our urban curbside management for the City of Frederick. Residents and small business owners had competing on-street parking needs in the downtown area—a common challenge in cities nationwide. Assessing on-street parking needs for residents, visitors, and delivery vehicles allowed us to fully understand their delivery needs and current on-street parking needs. This ultimately allowed us to convert transient parking spaces to parklets, and add space for outdoor dining and shopping. This project is just one example of how reimagining our use of parking spaces can lead to an enhanced local environment that better meets the needs of the community as our merchandise delivery systems change.
There have undoubtedly been multiple significant changes within merchandise delivery in recent years. These have been exacerbated by the pandemic, though they were already occurring previously. As ecommerce has increased, our infrastructure needs as a nation have shifted and changed—and we as transportation engineers need to change with them. I look forward to seeing what we can do for our communities moving forward.
